The inauguration of the 47th President of the United States and his radical programme are giving rise to a great deal of speculation and concern.
Europeans are looking to Ukraine and Russia in the hope that they will not be the passive victims of an over-hasty satisfaction of the tyrant in Moscow, which would confirm a vision that is far removed from European interests.
But for Europe, the consequences of Donald Trump's likely domestic policy decisions could be at least as worrying.
We are naturally thinking of a trade war that could result from unilaterally set tariffs designed to reduce the USA's gigantic deficit. Even more brutal would be widespread deregulation, which would give the US economy a tremendous boost, accelerating growth and making available substantial financial liquidity.
The priority on the US President's agenda is to roll back environmental and ethical constraints, which will boost domestic industry and free up new resources for expansion.
For the financial sector, which intends to free itself from prudential rules, in particular the so-called Basel III rules, this is a guarantee of consolidating its leading position and continuing to dominate global finance. The adventurism of betting on Bitcoin at the expense of the traditional guarantee provided by central banks, for reasons that are probably not very honest, could trigger a veritable monetary and financial tsunami and, in the medium term, end in a planetary disaster.
Finally, the tech oligarchs are calling for a showdown with the European Union, which has had the audacity to try to regulate their wild and predatory practices!
In the face of this hurricane, Europe has no choice but to fight back.
The single European market is indispensable to the American economy, which has many vested interests here. The European Union therefore has the means to dissuade the advocates of a trade war. It must not shy away from issuing warnings and deciding to retaliate in the event of hostile measures.
As far as the major digital players are concerned, the European Union must demand the strict application of its rules, come what may. It is likely that Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and a few others will try to escape this by mobilising the person before whom they have abandoned all principles and lamentably bowed down for purely financial reasons.
The fact remains, however, that overregulation in Europe, the result of a combination of national constraints and European rules, must be contested even more resolutely in the light of this new and unequal competition. Preserving the European model is not incompatible with a moratorium on regulation, in the name of the survival of an already highly regulated economy that is stagnating and struggling to return to growth. It has even become an obligation in the face of this blow from America, this nasty westerly wind that is shaping up to be a real storm.
Lastly, Europeans must demand to be involved in any negotiations with the dictator in the Kremlin, who is far too far from the American coastline to worry Uncle Sam, who wrongly wants to be recognised as a great power, but is primarily concerned with weakening, dividing and dismantling a Europe that constitutes, on his borders, the ideal counter-model to his oppressive and regressive regime.
Standing firm, united despite a few minor troublemakers, and going on the offensive economically, is the only choice for a Europe that must be confident of its strengths and loyal to its alliances, but never accept submission.
